Health Care & Medical

Gkfx paclight financial API crude oil inventories increased, weak effect 传说之密钥

GKFX: paclight financial API crude oil inventories increased, effects of weak data plane, the Asian session 5:30 in the morning, the U.S. Energy Information Association released the January 29th week API crude oil inventories, is expected to increase 4 million 800 thousand barrels, 3 million 840 thousand barrels of published values increased, the deviation is. Affected by this news, WTI intraday fell over 40 points, the lowest touch 29.56 line. Due to the maximum amplitude of 185 points yesterday, the effect of API data can be ignored. It is worth noting that, in the context of global overcapacity, whether API or EIA inventory increase or decrease, for WTI, have played a role in promoting the fall. On the contrary, the rise and fall of the news in the face of crude oil market, especially on OPEC or non OPEC oil producing countries news. U.S. disk time 21:15 minutes, will also announce the United States in January ADP employment, the former value increased by 257 thousand people, the expected value increased by 192 thousand and 500 people. The data has guiding significance for the large non farm published on Friday. When ADP deviates from the former value, there is a law of variation in the same direction. In addition, in January, the United States suffered a large area of cold wave invasion, the normal operation of some departments was disturbed to some extent, and the possibility of non-agricultural employment was lower than the previous value. Eight the evening of February 4th, there will be the British central bank interest rate decision announcement of the results from the inflation data has been published, the probability of not the bank interest rate adjustment. What needs to be emphasized is the quarterly inflation report after the meeting. If the dovish attitude is obvious, it will push a new round of fall in the pound. (the above analysis provided by GKFX paclight financial analyst Dean GKFX financial 2016-2-3) paclight into [shares] on Sina Finance

GKFX捷凯金融:API原油库存增加,影响微弱   数据面,亚盘时段早间5:30分,美国能源信息协会公布了美国1月29日当周API原油库存,预期增加480万桶,公布值增加384万桶,偏差不大。受此消息影响,WTI盘中下跌超40点,最低触及29.56一线。由于昨日最大振幅为185点,所以API数据造成的影响可以忽略不计。   值得注意的是,在全球产能过剩的大背景下,无论是API和EIA库存增加或者减少,对WTI来说,都起到了推动下跌的作用。与此相反,消息面对原油行情的涨跌推动越来越大,尤其是关于欧佩克或者非欧佩克产油国的减产消息。   美盘时段晚间21:15分,还将公布美国1月ADP就业人数,前值增加25.7万人,预期值增加19.25万人。该数据对于周五公布的大非农有指导意义,当ADP偏离前值较大时,两者存在同向变动的规律。另外,1月份美国受到大面积寒潮侵袭,某些部门的正常运作受到一定程度干扰,非农就业人数低于前值的可能性较大。   2月4号晚间八点,将会有英国央行利率决议结果公布,从已公布的通货膨胀数据来看,英央行进行利率调整的概率不大。需要重视的是会后的季度通胀报告内容,如果鸽派态度明显,将会推动镑美的新一轮下跌。   (以上分析由GKFX捷凯金融分析师Dean提供)   GKFX捷凯金融   2016-2-3 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

In 2016, the positive fiscal burden continued to increase, and the deficit rate was expected to reac 沙漏2txt下载

2016 fiscal deficit is forecast to continue boosting feed rate will reach 3%. Red tax fiscal material released – continued afterburner reporter Ni Mingya 2015 fiscal data before the analysis of the industry, in the weak economy environment, at the beginning of the 2016 fiscal expenditure will return to high growth rate, the active fiscal policy will continue, is expected in 2016 will reach the fiscal deficit rate 3%. Increase the deficit rate according to the Ministry of Finance recently released data, in 2015 the actual budget deficit caliber is 2 trillion and 360 billion yuan, accounting for about 3.5% of GDP over the same period, the size of the deficit of 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the budget deficit by about 760 billion yuan. Everbright Securities chief economist Xu Gao analysis, the actual budget deficit and budget deficit caliber caliber gap is mainly from three aspects: one is the budget stabilization fund of 112 billion 400 million yuan for carryover spending in 2015; two is the local government debt from 2015 to 2014, the balance of management, local government debt is 99 billion 300 million yuan, 100 billion yuan in 2015 so, the new debt also means that the old debt can get about 200 billion yuan, the capital expenditure is three; fiscal revitalize the stock of capital, estimated in 2015 the financial stock revitalize the capital in more than 400 billion yuan. The first two sources of funds are at the beginning of the budget, and the third is the source of the new capital increase during the year. In 2015, the deficit rate of 3.5% was far higher than the budget target set by 2.3% at the beginning of the year. In this context, will the deficit rate increase this year? The industry believes that the day before the central economic work conference has been given a clear answer to the stage, increase the deficit rate. To improve the range, Liang Hong, chief macroeconomic analyst at CICC, said that fiscal policy will continue to expand in 2016. The general public budget deficit is expected to reach 2 trillion and 200 billion, and the general public budget deficit rate will reach 3%. Considering the government continues to revitalize the stock of funds, the deficit rate calculated in the year revenue and expenditure may be further expanded than 3.5% in 2015. Xu Gao believes that the current financial stock size of about 3 trillion yuan, revitalize the financial stock funds may become an important source of fiscal revenue in the future. With the elimination of budget constraints at the end of the year, under the weak economic environment, fiscal expenditure will return to high growth at the beginning of the year, and the positive fiscal policy will continue. Liu Yuanchun, Dean of Renmin University of China and the National Development Strategy Research Institute said that 2016 is the first year of Chinese macro economy continues to dip, is one of the most difficult years recently. Before the end of the world economy, there is still downside in China’s economy. All kinds of macroeconomic indicators will be further down, and the micro operation mechanism will be further mutated. We should adhere to the "fiscal Waqu, currency drain" principle, directional suggestions of strengthening the positive fiscal policy easing, fiscal deficit rate can reach about 3%, the total reached 2 trillion yuan, at the same time, will gradually change the structural tax cuts tax cuts for the total, to reform the existing financial payment mode. Expanding the scale of tax cuts, Liang Hong believes that 2016 tax cuts will play a greater role. "Camp changed to increase" will be covered to the theory

2016年积极财政料持续加力 预计赤字率将达3%   提赤减税 积极财政料持续加力   □本报记者 倪铭娅   2015年财政收支数据日前出炉,业内人士分析,在经济疲弱环境下,2016年初财政支出将重回高增速,积极财政政策将持续,预计2016年财政赤字率将达3%。   提高赤字率   根据财政部近日公布的数据计算,2015年实际收支口径财政赤字为2.36万亿元,约占同期GDP的3.5%,赤字规模较年初1.6万亿元的预算赤字高出约7600亿元。   光大证券首席经济学家徐高分析,实际收支口径赤字与预算收支口径赤字差距主要来自三方面:一是预算稳定调节基金中有1124亿元结转用于2015年开支;二是地方政府债从2015年转为余额管理,2014年地方政府债务还本部分为993亿元,2015年在1000亿元左右,意味着发新债还老债可以获得2000亿元左右的支出资金;三是财政存量资金盘活,估计2015年财政存量盘活资金在4000亿元以上。前两项资金来源均在年初预算中,第三项则为年内新增资金来源。   2015年3.5%的财政赤字率远高于年初设定的2.3%的预算目标。在此背景下,今年赤字率目标是否会提高?业内人士认为,日前召开的中央经济工作会议已给出明确答案,要阶段性提高财政赤字率。   对于提高幅度,中金公司首席宏观分析师梁红表示,2016年财政政策将继续维持扩张态势。预计一般公共预算财政赤字达到2.2万亿,一般公共预算赤字率达到3%。考虑政府继续盘活存量资金,以当年收支计算的赤字率可能比2015年的3.5%进一步扩大。   徐高认为,目前财政存量资金规模在3万亿元左右,盘活财政存量资金可能成为未来重要财政收入来源。随着年末预算约束的消除,经济疲弱环境下,年初财政支出将重回高增速,积极财政政策将持续。   中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院院长刘元春表示,2016年是中国宏观经济持续探底的第一年,也是近期最艰难的一年。在世界经济见底之前,中国经济还存在下行空间。各类宏观经济指标将进一步回落,微观运行机制将出现进一步变异。应坚持“财政挖渠,货币放水”的原则,建议强化积极财政政策的定向宽松,财政赤字率可以达到3%左右,总量达到2万亿元左右,同时,逐步将结构性减税转变为总量性减税,改革现有财政支付模式。   扩大减税规模   梁红认为,2016年减税将发挥更大作用。“营改增”将覆盖到所有行业,增值税税率有可能下调。由于经济增长和通胀仍然偏弱,税收增速仍将保持较低增长。土地出让收入在2015年经历大幅下跌后,预计2016年跌幅缩小,政府收入总量增速可能回升。   梁红预计,减税主要通过降低增值税实现。在具体减税安排上,一是通过金融、房地产、建筑以及生活服务业的营改增,预计减税2000亿元左右;二是降低制造业增值税等,预计减税3000亿元左右,据此测算,制造业增值税率可以从目前的17%大致降低到15%左右,增值税仍然偏高。预计企业所得税不会进行调整,但个税起征点偏低,有上调的需要,企业缴纳的社保等也有下调的必要。   梁红预计,今年减税可以提升经济增长0.4个百分点。“如果增加的财政赤字主要用于支出而不是减税,对于经济增长的拉动作用更大。”   加快发行地方债   加快地方债务置换,增加地方可用资金也是今年积极财政政策的一大重点。   分析人士预计,2016年地方债置换与新增规模将达到6万亿左右。新增债券将增加地方可用资金,存量置换债则帮助减轻地方债务成本支出,利于稳增长。   中金公司固定收益研究组认为,存量债务在未来2至3年完成置换,意味着未来将提前置换未到期债务。预计2016年地方政府债券置换与新增规模总计约6万亿,春节前会有少量地方债发行,但集中供给或需待春节后甚至两会后。2016年地方债发行将更加均匀,且债务余额管理制度下,地方政府发债的自主性将增加。   中债估值中心预估,2016年地方债发行会在2015年的基础上增加50%至60%。业内人士称,在中央严控地方债务风险背景下,地方债再度扩容,存量置换债券是重点。新增债券额度仍会谨慎控制,地方政府资金来源除了借力地方债,还得综合运用其他投融资手段,如通过PPP模式撬动社会资本。   在地方债发行力度加大的同时,城投债发行也再加速。交通运输、建筑工程等是城投债主要投资行业。   徐高表示,随着地方政府债务置换规模的加大和城投债的加速发行,基建投资资金面将明显改善。2016年地方债发行规模将进一步扩大,全年地方债发行额可能在5-6万亿元。同时,城投债发行持续加快,预计2016年城投债发行量将达1.8万亿元,将持续改善地方政府资金来源。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

Limit the temptation of China Merchants Bank frequently bet on shares privatization 炎黄职业技术学院

China Merchants Bank frequently bet trading board too tempting the privatization concept stocks weekly Times reporter Shi Lu 20 trading board from Shanghai giant network return to A shares hit to the shares in a myriad of reverie. Takes stock return business has become the capital to compete for the meat and potatoes. China Merchants Bank also vigorously undertake the stock return business in 2015, trying to profit in the capital feast. Tang Zhihong, vice president of China Merchants Bank in 2015 investment bank forum said: "2015 takes stock privatization return enthusiasm, the funds required for large scale, complex transaction structure, China Merchants Bank to undertake a number of large stocks delisting acquisitions, bank financing has become the most professional in this field." In order to vigorously develop the stock market, the investment department of China Merchants Bank has been vigorously recruiting people, doubling the size of personnel." A person close to China Merchants Bank said to the weekly times reporter. According to the weekly Times reporter to incomplete statistics, since the shares start delisting business since the bank has a number of shares shall continue to undertake the return of business, including Qihoo 360, rural based, perfect world, giant network, Air Media, iSoftStone etc.. Share shares return bonus, with the past year bets on stocks return business, cross-border finance has become China Merchants Bank new growth point. In 2015, China Merchants Bank participated in a number of private equity trading in China, and its main role was to provide private debt financing for China securities. Not only that, China Merchants Bank to participate in the privatization of the consortium, and even participate in shares backdoor A shares set by the business, market share dividend stocks return to the local. The breakdown of China Merchants Bank participation shares return business, Qihoo 360 privatization delisting business is so far the largest single. At the end of January this year, the privatization process continues to advance 360. According to the 360 SEC documents show that it has completed the $9 billion 400 million privatization and obtain the final agreement, China Merchants Bank and other bank led 360 privatization transactions to provide $3 billion 400 million of debt financing, in addition to the privatization Consortium for the privatization of 360 of its own funds. To provide private financing for China stock exchange is only part of the privatization of China Merchants bank. The weekly Times reporter learned that one of the privatization concept stocks the biggest difficulty in the process of delisting is the privatization of funding problems, have a larger voice and other business funding party often takes shares in return in. The joint-stock bank shares to participate in the privatization of delisting has existed only for debt financing is more generally involved in financing the bank will also in its own name or the name of related parties, takes stock equity intervention." Beijing zhongzi law firm Chen Xingeng told the weekly Times reporter said. Times weekly reporter found that, in addition to providing debt financing, China Merchants Bank related parties also participated in the 360 privatization of the buyer consortium. Statistics show that, in the list of 360 private enterprises in the investment fortune Asset Management Co., Ltd., after the transformation of 1.7% shareholding. Public information shows that China Merchants wealth Asset Management Co., Ltd. shareholders are China Merchants Fund Co, the registered capital of 100 million

涨停板太诱惑 招行频频押注中概股私有化   时代周报记者 施露 发自上海   巨人网络回归A股创下的20个涨停板带给了中概股无数的遐想。中概股回归业务也成为各路资本争相角逐的香饽饽。招商银行也在2015年大力承接中概股回归业务,试图在这场资本盛宴中获利。   招商银行副行长唐志宏在2015投资银行高峰论坛上表示:“2015年中概股私有化回归热情高涨,所需资金规模巨大,交易结构复杂,招行承接了一批大型美股退市并购项目,已成为这一领域最为专业的融资银行。”   “为了大力发展中概股业务,招行的投行部门一直在大力招人,人员规模扩大了一倍。”一位接近招商银行的人士向时代周报记者表示。   据时代周报记者不完全统计,自中概股启动退市业务以来,招商银行已陆续承接多个中概股回归业务,包括奇虎360、乡村基、完美世界、巨人网络、航美传媒、软通动力等。   分享中概股回归红利   随着过去一年押注中概股回归业务,跨境金融已成招行新业绩增长点。   2015年招行参与了多起中概股私有化业务,其扮演的主要角色是为中概股提供私有化债务融资。不仅如此,招行也参与到私有化的买方财团中,甚至参与中概股借壳A股的定增业务,分享中概股回归本土的市值红利。   细数招行参与的中概股回归业务中,奇虎360私有化退市业务是截至目前规模最大的一单。   截至今年1月底,360的私有化进程在持续推进。据360的SEC文件显示,其已完成94亿美元的私有化最终协议,并获得招行等银行牵头为360私有化交易提供的34亿美元债务融资,此外还有私有化财团用于私有化360的自有资金。   为中概股提供私有化融资只是招行承接中概股私有化退市业务的一部分。时代周报记者了解到,中概股私有化退市过程中面临的最大困难之一便是私有化资金问题,而提供资金的一方往往在中概股回归的其他业务中拥有较大的话语权。   “股份制银行参与中概股私有化退市一直存在,只不过做债务融资的比较多,一般参与融资的银行会同时以自身名义或者关联方名义,进行中概股股权介入。”北京中咨律所陈新庚对时代周报记者称。   时代周报记者发现,除了提供债务融资,招行的关联方也参与了360私有化的买方财团。资料显示,参加360私有化企业名单中就有招商财富资产管理有限公司,转化后持股1.7%。   公开资料显示,招商财富资产管理有限公司股东为招商基金管理有限公司,注册资本1亿元,招商基金管理有限公司为招商银行与招商证券联合成立,因此招商财富资产管理有限公司为招行的关联公司。   按照77美元 ADS的私有化价格(总股本为12894万),360此次私有化退市估值为99.28亿美元。招行关联方持有的1.7%股份价值约为1.68亿美元。而日后若360登陆A股后估值像巨人网络般市值翻番,那么招行等买方财团参与者则收益可观。   “因为中概股是境外公司,为其私有化提供融资收益与国内债务融资并无太大差距,关键是借此介入股权层面,利用中概股国内外估值的剪刀差获取丰厚利润。”陈新庚称。   除360之外,招商银行同样以提供私有化融资参与了乡村基、完美世界的私有化退市中。与参与360私有化略有不同的是,招行及关联方并未出现在完美世界买方财团的名单中,而是在完美世界借助完美环球登陆A股之时参与了定增交易。   根据完美环球2015年7月的资产重组预案,完美世界拟以23.56元 股向公司实控人池宇峰、两个员工持股计划及招商财富-招商银行-完美1号专项资管计划定增不超2.12亿股,配套募资不超过50亿元,用于影视剧投资、游戏的研发运营与代理等项目。   此外,在2015年4月完美世界“私有化”交易中,招行纽约分行、招行离岸金融中心及永隆银行将提供9亿美元贷款融资,位于香港的永隆银行早已于2008年被招行全资收购,为招行海外业务的重要平台之一。   同样,招行以参与融资的方式介入了乡村基的私有化退市中。根据2015年12月17日乡村基的贷款承诺函,公司买方集团计划用招行纽约分行的贷款完成私有化。招行纽约分行扮演的是一个离岸金融的角色,招行重庆分行则扮演了一个境内配合者,而招行纽约分行为乡村基私有化提供了不超过5000万美元的定期贷款。   利润险中求   从完美世界私有化回归的进展来看,在曲线借助完美环球登陆A股之时,其估值较私有化退市之时溢价412倍。这一数字足以让所有参与中概股回归的买方财团赚足银两,也足以让其他欲回归的中概股眼红。   招行作为定增的参与方,也同样在此轮交易中获利颇丰。完美世界资产注入完美环球之后,后者股价复牌至今一路攀升,最高收盘价至37.6元 股。   此前,招行关联方参与完美环球定增价格仅为23.56元 股。按照完美环球1月29日收盘价36元 股来看,招行关联方每股浮盈12.4元,浮盈率高达52%。   中概股私有化业务的高额利润使得招行在此项业务上倾注了相当的人力物力。一位接近招行投行部的人士对时代周报记者称:“公司近期投行部门一直在招人,甚至对国内外名校优秀毕业生敞开大门,投行部门的规模扩大了一倍以上。”   对于招行为何如此重视中概股私有化退市业务,上述接近招行投行部的人士称,主要由于近年来银行普通业务收益逐渐下滑,风险逐渐上升,招行开始寻求新的业务增长点,而中概股因在国外长期估值偏低,而回归国内,登陆A股的几只中概股估值翻番,其中丰厚的利润也使得招行押宝中概股私有化业务。   从当前已回归的中概股来看,巨人网络、完美世界、分众传媒返回A股后市值都大幅提升。但参与中概股回归A股也潜藏着巨大的风险。   在著名投行人士黄立冲看来,商业银行为中概股私有化回归业务提供融资属于高风险的杠杆融资,如果成功,回报也高,但这取决于A股市场的好坏。招行发力中概股业务与其投行化战略息息相关。   对于参与中概股业务的风险,陈新庚指出,中概股回归之后,实现国内上市或者重组并购没有成功,最后它融资的资金需要股东方偿还,如果股东方现金流和负债压力较大无法偿还,提供融资的一方就面临着坏账的风险。   各路资本齐赌中概股   风险虽高,但高回报诱惑之下,依然有众多银行及各路资本竞相争夺中概股私有化业务。   与招行相比,民生银行参与中概股私有化业务的范畴更广。在分众传媒私有化退市并回归A股的进程中,民生银行投资银行部参与度极高。彼时,分众传媒借壳上市之时估值就较纽交所上涨2倍。   2013年5月,分众传媒完成私有化退市,民生银行牵头并提供私有化转项银团贷款15.25亿美元;2014年11月,分众传媒筹划A计划,需重组银团贷款并转让部分老股,民生银行提出包含全部贷款+股权投资的一整套金融解决方案。   民生银行投资银行部总经理张立洲曾在公开场合表示,民生投行启动其A计划,旨在为中概股提供私有化、拆结构、回归A股、境内外股权融资等。   “国内的股份制商业银行中,招商银行机制灵活,业务创新能力较强,加上跨境的相关资源,其也在致力于做大做强中概股退市并购业务,并承接了不少中概股业务。”一位上海私募界人士对时代周报记者称。   “私有化以后,股权结构还是境外的,需要拆除VIE架构,要根据监管机构的要求要把原来的股权架构重新梳理一遍,然后再进行整合。这个过程中,过去有的外资基金想退出的可以退出,不想退出的要转化成境内股权。说起来简单,其实是复杂而艰难的过程。”上述私募人士指出。   除了民生银行、招行之外,浦发银行、花旗银行、平安银行也参与到中概股私有化业务中。据路透社报道,在巨人网络私有化退市并回归A股的进程中,有5家银行参与了巨人网络30亿美元私有化的杠杆收购案。其中,招行和平安银行分别承贷5000万美元。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

还不如买黄金 荿人网站带图片的

[Topic] global market turmoil prices retaliatory rebound in gold hedging demand – Sohu financial review over the past week, and the Spring Festival holiday festival with a domestic, global market suffered a storm, increasing fears of global economic uncertainty and financial market risk, resulting in most investment targets the low-spirited. Crude oil prices retaliatory rebound sharply lower after the high volatility has become the norm; the gold price increase in consumer demand China related stock movements and promote global hedge demand rising, while facing the Fed rate hike is uncertain, the future trend of the gold is still there are many variables. "The current fierce struggle between long and short, crude oil prices plummeted become the norm." Easy-forex, deputy chief Trading Officer of China headquarters, said to the first financial daily, as the dollar plummeted, the market for the Fed interest rate expectations are cooling down, more secure assets such as gold again favored. Oil prices after nearly a week jumped sharply lower on Friday (February 12th), the international crude oil prices finally rebound. As of February 12th closing, WTI crude oil prices rose 8.46%, closing price of $31.27 barrel, rebounded to the top of the $30 mark; NYMEX crude oil rose more obvious, closing record 10.72% rise, closing price of $29.02 barrel. The rapid rebound in oil prices in the short term is mainly boosted by the rumor that "OPEC member countries (OPEC) have made preparations for reducing production". In February 12th, media reports said, "the United Arab Emirates energy minister said that OPEC is ready to cooperate to reduce production, the current price has forced non OPEC oil producers at least limiting the output."." After the announcement, crude oil prices rebounded immediately, after the U.S. oil has just set a new 13 year low to 26.21 U.S. dollars barrel, and then rebounded to the top of the $27 barrel, cloth oil day decline narrowed. In addition to the news of OPEC or the reduction of production, insiders suggested that oil prices were only a technical rebound last Friday, which was not driven by short-term capital flows. In addition, there are signs that oil prices have been decreasing for many years, making energy companies have to reduce output, which is also conducive to easing the downward pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. official data show that in February 6th, EIA crude oil production dropped sharply by 754 thousand barrels a week in March, and predicted that the output of the 7 major shale oil companies in the United States will continue to decline. It is worth noting that the short-term rebound is still not enough to change the trend of oil prices going down for a long time. Since the beginning of this year, ICE cloth oil fell by 11.62%, WTI crude oil fell by 15.96%, NYMEX crude oil decline has already expanded to 21.72%. In February 11th, WTI crude prices fell below $27 to $26.81 a barrel, hitting a new low since May 2003, down 75% from the peak level of about $108 a barrel in June 2014. Franc, head of Goldman Sachs macro market strategy

【全球市场动荡专题】油价报复性反弹 黄金避险需求大增-搜狐财经   回顾过去一周,与国内春节假期一片喜庆洋洋不同的是,全球市场遭遇了一场暴风雨的洗礼,投资者对于全球经济不确定性及金融市场风险的担忧不断加剧,导致大多数投资标的萎靡不振。  原油价格在大幅走低后出现报复性反弹,高波动性日渐成为常态;黄金价格则在中国消费 相关公司股票走势 需求增加以及全球避险需求的推动下不断上涨,而面对美联储加息的不确定性,黄金未来走势仍存在诸多变数。  “当前多空激战激烈,原油暴涨暴跌成为常态。”easy-forex易信总部中国区副首席交易官朱文灏对《第一财经日报》表示,随着美元暴跌,市场对美联储升息预期降温,更安全的资产如黄金重新受到青睐。  油价上蹿下跳  在经历了近一周的大幅走低后,上周五(2月12日)国际原油价格终于止跌回升。  截至2月12日收盘,WTI原油价格上涨8.46%,收盘价位31.27美元 桶,回升至30美元大关上方;NYMEX原油涨势更为明显,收盘录得10.72%的涨幅,收盘价位29.02美元 桶。  对于短期内油价快速反弹,主要受到“石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国或已做好减产准备”这一传闻的提振。  2月12日,有媒体报道称,“阿联酋能源部长表示,OPEC已准备好合作减产,当前价格已迫使非OPEC产油国至少限制了产量。” 此消息一经公布,原油价格立即出现反弹,此前美油刚刚刷新了13年新低至26.21美元 桶,而此后反弹至27美元 桶上方,布油当日跌幅收窄。  除受OPEC或将减产的消息提振外,有业内人士提出,上周五油价仅为技术性反弹,由短期资金流动导致,并非基本面推动。此外,有迹象表明长期以来不断走低的原油价格已经令能源企业不得不减少产出,这也有利于缓解油价下跌压力。  美国官方最新数据显示,2月6日当周EIA原油产量大幅下降了75.4万桶,同时预测3月份美国7大主要的页岩油企业产量将继续下降。  值得注意的是,短期的止跌反弹仍不足以改变油价长期走低的趋势。年初至今,ICE布油累计下跌11.62%,WTI原油下跌15.96%,NYMEX原油跌幅更是已经扩大至21.72%。  2月11日,WTI原油价格曾一度跌破每桶27美元至26.81美元,创2003年5月以来新低,较2014年6月每桶约108美元的巅峰水平跌去75%。  高盛宏观市场策略的联合主管Francesco Garzarelli近日分析称,国际原油市场已经进入以更大波动为特征的转变阶段,但油价的底部已经成形。  高盛预计,在原油市场寻求供给再平衡的阶段,油价会出现更大的波动,并且有跌破20美元 桶的风险。  “一些地区的库存容量已经耗竭,油价可能需要出现足够大的跌幅,才能迫使石油生产商停止继续生产来弥补库存减少的石油。” 高盛大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie在接受媒体采访时表示。  国际能源署(IEA)在2月份的月报中指出,今年大部分时间,市场上仍将会充斥着过剩原油,原油市场实现供需平衡仍需时日。IEA认为,美国减产短期内很难实现,而石油输出国组织(OPEC)也不太可能与非OPEC产油国就减产达成合作。  值得注意的是,近期全球市场风险因素不断增加也使油价反弹增加一丝阴霾。  海通证券宏观分析师姜超分析称,当前全球经济仍旧低迷,市场对中国经济甚至有“硬着陆”的忧虑,美国经济本已缓慢复苏,但全球金融形势的变动对美国经济的复苏构成威胁,美联储主席耶伦在国会证词中也表达了这一忧虑。  在过去的一周,WTI原油最大累计跌幅一度超过15%,触及2002年的最低点,布伦特原油价格也刷新了2003年以来的新低。  近日市场关注的焦点集中在对于欧洲银行业盈利和抗风险能力的担忧。“由于原油与商品风险敞口占有形资产账面价值比重较高,欧洲银行业的盈利和抗风险能力受到严重挑战。” 姜超说道。  IEA在报告中说道:“尽管很难相信油价会如部分极端预测那样跌至每桶10美元,但是也很难看到油价有自当前水平显著反弹的动力”。  黄金再受热捧  在德意志银行巨亏以及美联储加息预期减弱的催化下,全球市场再次遭遇金融风暴洗礼,而避险需求的增加助推黄金实现“王者归来”,年初至今已逆势上涨近17%,一举成为表现最好的投资资产。  刚刚过去的春节“黄金周”,国际黄金价格上涨超过8%,一度突破1240美元 盎司的关口,截至2月13日,现货黄金价格为1237.51美元 盎司,年初至今上涨16.61%。  国内市场除黄金饰品销售火爆外,各大商业银行交易的纸黄金产品也普遍突破260元 克的关口。  姜超认为,在外汇管制加强的背景下,换美金并不现实,而且还给政府“添乱”,还不如买黄金,也就是我们一直讲的“换美金不如买黄金”。  2月11日,世界黄金协会(WGC)发布年度黄金需求趋势报告称,全球央行和中国买家在2015年第四季度处于避险需求大举买入黄金。  报告指出,尽管中国经济面临增速放缓的压力,但黄金消费不断攀升,已经超过印度再次成为世界上最大的黄金消费国。  “中国黄金需求总量为985万吨,其次印度为849万吨,分别占全球黄金需求的45%。此外,中国黄金的消费需求去年同比增加2%,印度同比增长1%。”  按对于黄金的投资前景,业内观点不一。  高盛预计称,黄金在今年底会跌至1000美元 盎司。“我们的经济团队预计,美联储今年会加息3次,每次25个基点至1.3%,” 高盛分析师杰夫里(Jeffrey Currie)提出,今年美国经济仍会以高于趋势的速度增长,刺激通胀预期回升。随之而来的加息将抑制黄金需求。  “经济更快的增长,以及物价预期的回升,都会导致美联储实际利率的上升,而根据我们的黄金研究框架,它将驱动金价在年底跌至约1000美元的水平” 杰夫里说道。  山东黄金首席分析师蒋舒则认为,单纯从黄金投资的角度而言,黄金价格周期和美元周期反向关系明显,预计未来2-3年内强势美元周期尚未结束,因此判断黄金还未迎来“熊转牛”的时刻。  而在最新发布的报告中,国泰君安证券首席宏观分析师任泽平则将黄金排在未来全球大类资产配置建议的首位。  作者:薛皎来源一财网)相关的主题文章:

佳兆业也许会部分接受反对方要求 唐山学院是几本

Henderson overseas debt restructuring support agreement on the date of Gordian knot support agreement delayed the overseas debt restructuring difficult knot Kaisa   for nearly half of the overseas creditors do not agree, and some foreign creditors "resolutely opposed" debt restructuring is still in suspense, Jia Zhaoyehai. The day before, Kaisa announced for more time, preparation of the implementation of restructuring documents required information restructuring support agreement deadline will be extended to February 14, 2016. The deadlocked overseas restructuring under the restructuring support agreement, and the majority of creditors Kaisa initially agreed to be on or before January 31st agreed to restructure the final form of the file, but if the majority of creditors and initially agreed to mutual agreement can delay the relevant date. At that time, the overseas debt restructuring support Kaisa scheduled deadline for agreement in February 7, 2016. 1 26, Henderson disclosure recent developments that, for domestic and foreign debt restructuring progress, overseas debt restructuring plan proposed by the family, has received 53% of creditors, the distance of 75% by threshold is a step closer, restructuring programme is continuing to advance. At the same time, the restructuring of domestic debt has been almost completed. At the same time, the other is a major positive, CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank Henderson won 50 billion yuan financial support for debt restructuring to promote. In this regard, the official said, if coupled with Henderson including Shenzhen, around the project will unlock, enter the normal sales status. All the signs have shown that Henderson in bankruptcy crisis more than a year almost to get rid of the dilemma and recovery. The opposition is tough, but it’s too early to say that the restructuring of overseas debt is premature. According to the recent Kaisa and Ping An Bank reached a strategic cooperation, the company’s overseas creditors BFAM Partners published the latest comments that this highlights the "put forward a more credible and offshore bondholders to the terms of the settlement scheme of importance". Insiders, as one of the largest overseas creditor companies, BFAM and Farallon, the two Wall Street hedge funds and information management firm’s overseas creditors are still firm attitude. Previously, because of the opposition put forward Kaisa restructuring agreement, the overseas creditors in January 14th proposed debt restructuring Henderson counter proposal, mainly related to the foreign creditors by the net present value increased from 75% to 87%; the new high notes and convertible bonds, the first year to provide 0.5% cash coupon, and all the year the coupon payment in kind than the original proposal about 2%-6%; in addition, existing shareholders or creditors will inject $200 million in the bank 8 year zero coupon primary capital. How to choose the support agreement even Kaisa delayed the final showdown on the distance is only a week left, time is still not much henderson. For the moment, it is still uncertain whether or not a party will represent an overseas creditor. However, market participants believe that this part of the group accounted for more than 25% or more. According to the theory of Henderson group bonds 佳兆业境外债务重组死结难解 支持协议日期再延后   支持协议日期延后   佳兆业境外债务重组死结难解    因近半数的境外债权人“不赞成”,以及部分境外债权人的“坚决反对”,佳兆业海外债务重组依旧悬而未决。日前,佳兆业宣布,因需要更多时间编制落实重组文件所需资料,重组支持协议截止日期将延至2016年2月14日。   僵持不下的海外重组   根据重组支持协议,佳兆业与多数初步同意的债权人须于1月31日或之前同意最终形式的重组文件,但若与多数初步同意债权人互相协定则可延迟有关日期。   当时,佳兆业原定的境外债务重组支持协议截止日期为2016年2月7日。   1月26日,佳兆业披露公司近期发展情况时表示,对于境内外债务重组进展,由郭氏家族提出的境外债务重组方案,已经获得53%债权人的支持,距离75%的通过门槛又近了一步,重组方案正在继续推进中。同时,境内债务的重组方案已几近完成。   与此同时,另一个重大利好则是,继中信银行之后,佳兆业再获平安银行500亿元资金支持,用于债务重组的推进。   对此,相关人士表示,如果加上佳兆业包括深圳在内的各地项目陆续解锁,进入正常的销售状态。种种迹象已经表明,深陷破产危机一年多的佳兆业几乎就要摆脱困境,走向复苏。   反对方态度强硬   不过,目前断言境外债务重组大局落定为时尚早。   针对佳兆业近期与平安银行达成战略合作一事,该公司境外债权人BFAM Partners发表最新评论认为,这凸显了“提出一份更具有可信度的与离岸债券持有人和解条款方案的重要性”。业内人士分析,作为最大的海外债权公司之一,BFAM和Farallon这两家来自华尔街的知名对冲基金和资管公司境外债权人的态度依旧坚决。   此前,因反对佳兆业提出重组协议,上述境外债权人于1月14日提出佳兆业债务重组反提案,主要涉及将境外债权人所获净现值由75%提升至87%;新高息票据及可换股债券,第一年拟提供0.5%现金票息,且所有年份的实物支付票息较原提案约高出2%-6%;此外,现有股东或在岸债权人将注入2亿美元8年期零息票初级资本。   佳兆业如何选择   即便支持协议日期延后,距离最后摊牌日也仅增加一周时间,留给佳兆业的时间依旧不多了。就目前而言,其究竟反对一方代表境外债权人多大比例仍为未知数。不过市场人士认为,这部分群体占比或已超过25%。根据佳兆业集团的债券募集说明书,持有未偿还债券余额比例达到25%的投资者,就可以针对公司采取强制措施。   “强势债权人提出的利益诉求是否能满足将是谈判的最大变数。”市场人士预计,佳兆业获平安银行输血500亿元后,境内债务重组得到解决,但其海外重组协议得到海外债权人超过75%以上支持,陷入搁浅状态。佳兆业不愿成为别人案板上的鱼肉,但若一味坚持将延误其复苏时机,佳兆业也许会部分接受反对方要求。   北京商报记者 董家声 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: