The terminal needs cold meal after weakening 隋唐逐鹿记

The terminal needs cold meal after weakening recently, domestic soy market is relatively calm, maintain the range of operation. From the perspective of supply and demand, the global beans market is still in a loose pattern. The latest USDA supply and demand report lowered U.S. soybean crushings, a slight increase in ending stocks, easing has narrowed, but will not change the overall market oversupply of beans. U.S. soybean export sales report is still underperforming. South American soybeans are on the market, and China is buying soybeans from South america. Livestock stocks remained low, with a decline or expansion in January. The author believes that under the background of global oversupply of soybean, soybean meal is more likely to become weaker. USDA2 supply and demand report neutral in February the United States Department of agriculture supply and demand report lowered U.S. soybean crushings, causing stocks to rise, other data were unchanged. Historical data show that in February the supply and demand report, the yield forecast is all flat, the final inventory estimates flat and up 27%, down 46%. USDA1 supply and demand report slightly more stimulus, either short up. Among them, the U.S. soybean yield and Inventory were lower than expected. In February, the supply and demand reports changed little, and the final inventory increased slightly, and the impact on the market was neutral. In 20152016, the domestic soybean crushing profit continued to fall, much lower than the previous two years, soybean crush nearly two months also fell. In February 11, 2016, soybean crushing profits in the United States were $1.07 bushels, down by 0.05 cents a bushel, down $1.35 bushels. The United States Department of agriculture export sales weekly report, as of February 4th week, the U.S. soybean exports 20152016 annual net sales of 666 thousand and 900 tons, 20162017 reduction in annual net sales of 65 thousand and 700 tons of soybean exports. Soybean exports 1 million 322 thousand and 500 tons in USA in 20152016. South America soybean has been listed in the next two weeks, the main soybean producing areas in Brazil still have continuous precipitation, about 25 55mm, less than the normal level. In 2015, the sowing rate of soybean in Brazil was slightly lower than before, but since January rainfall has greatly alleviated the drought. Brazil agricultural advisory body AgRural data show that as of January 29th, Brazil soybean harvest schedule is 4%, higher than 2% a week ago. Although precipitation may affect the soybean harvest schedule, it helps the growth of soybean crops sown in late November or later. As of January 29th, the number one soybean producing areas of mixed state of Mato Grosso soybean yield, the average yield of 39 bushels an acre in northern area, the highest yield of 52 bushels an acre. I judge, precipitation on troubled harvest is limited, but is conducive to the growth of soybean, soybean production in Brazil or close to 1 tons, is expected to Argentina will also yield of soybean. North American farmers are expected to accelerate the sale of soybeans and return capital for spring plowing. The port inventory year high, pig herds low, Tianxialiangcang survey in February 2016, the domestic soybean import port forecast to port 67 ship 4 million 201 thousand tons, slightly lower than previously expected 4 million 600 thousand tons, significantly lower.

终端需求遇冷 豆粕节后趋弱   近期,国内外豆类市场相对平静,维持区间运行。从供需层面来看,全球豆类市场仍处于宽松格局。美国农业部最新供需报告下调了美豆压榨量,小幅上调了期末库存,宽松幅度收窄,但不会改变豆类市场整体供应过剩的局面。美豆出口销售报告仍表现不佳。南美大豆陆续上市,中国或转而采购南美大豆。养殖存栏仍偏低,1月环比降幅或扩大。笔者认为,全球大豆供过于求的大背景下,豆粕转弱的可能性较大。   USDA2月供需报告偏中性   美国农业部2月供需报告下调了美豆压榨量,导致期末库存上升,其他数据环比不变。历史数据显示,2月供需报告中单产预估环比全部持平,期末库存预估环比持平和上调分别占27%,下调占46%。USDA1月供需报告略偏多,刺激美豆短暂收高。其中,美豆单产和库存均低于预期。2月供需报告各项目变动不大,对期末库存微幅上调,对市场影响偏中性。   2015 2016年度美国国内大豆压榨利润持续回落,远低于前两年,大豆压榨量近两个月也出现回落。2016年2月11日,美国国内大豆压榨利润为1.07美元 蒲式耳,环比下降0.05美分 蒲式耳,同比下降1.35美元 蒲式耳。美国农业部出口销售周报显示,截至2月4日当周,美国2015 2016年度大豆出口净销售66.69万吨,2016 2017年度大豆出口净销售减少6.57万吨。当周美国2015 2016年度大豆出口装船132.25万吨。   南美大豆陆续上市   未来两周巴西大豆主产区仍有持续降水,约25�55mm,较正常水平仍偏少。2015年巴西大豆播种进度略偏低,但1月以来降水大大缓解了旱情。巴西农业咨询机构AgRural数据显示,截至1月29日,巴西大豆收割进度为4%,高于一周前的2%。尽管降水可能影响大豆收割进度,但有助于去年11月或更晚播种的大豆作物生长。截至1月29日,头号大豆产区马托格罗索州大豆单产情况喜忧参半,北部平均单产39蒲式耳 英亩,单产最高地区52蒲式耳 英亩。   笔者判断,降水对收割困扰有限,但有利于大豆生长,巴西大豆产量或逼近1亿吨,预计阿根廷大豆也将丰产。南美大豆上市冲击北美大豆,预计北美农民将加速出售大豆,回笼资金以备春耕。   港口库存同比偏高,生猪存栏偏低   天下粮仓调查显示,2016年2月,国内各港口进口大豆预报到港67船420.1万吨,略低于此前预期的460万吨,也大幅低于1月的603.9万吨,同比减少6.34万吨。究其原因,自去年12月以来,美豆质量较差,很多买家洗船,转为等待购买南美大豆。实际上,2015年10月至2016年1月国内累计进口大豆3228万吨,同比增加8.3%。目前港口库存维持在650万吨左右,较前期有所回落,但同比去年仍高15%。   去年12月,4000个监测点生猪存栏为38379万头,环比下降1.1%,同比下降9%。生猪存栏连续走低,不利于豆粕需求增长。在供给充足,需求低迷的情况下,豆粕价格难以出现大幅上涨。   综上所述,在供过于求的背景下,春节备货结束,南美大豆上市,更廉价便宜的大豆将冲击市场,豆粕走势将转弱。建议投资者关注豆粕2400元 吨一线的支撑力度,可做空1605或1609合约。需要关注的风险因素主要是南北美天气以及罢工等。   (作者单位:中信期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: