In 2016, the positive fiscal burden continued to increase, and the deficit rate was expected to reac 沙漏2txt下载

2016 fiscal deficit is forecast to continue boosting feed rate will reach 3%. Red tax fiscal material released – continued afterburner reporter Ni Mingya 2015 fiscal data before the analysis of the industry, in the weak economy environment, at the beginning of the 2016 fiscal expenditure will return to high growth rate, the active fiscal policy will continue, is expected in 2016 will reach the fiscal deficit rate 3%. Increase the deficit rate according to the Ministry of Finance recently released data, in 2015 the actual budget deficit caliber is 2 trillion and 360 billion yuan, accounting for about 3.5% of GDP over the same period, the size of the deficit of 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the budget deficit by about 760 billion yuan. Everbright Securities chief economist Xu Gao analysis, the actual budget deficit and budget deficit caliber caliber gap is mainly from three aspects: one is the budget stabilization fund of 112 billion 400 million yuan for carryover spending in 2015; two is the local government debt from 2015 to 2014, the balance of management, local government debt is 99 billion 300 million yuan, 100 billion yuan in 2015 so, the new debt also means that the old debt can get about 200 billion yuan, the capital expenditure is three; fiscal revitalize the stock of capital, estimated in 2015 the financial stock revitalize the capital in more than 400 billion yuan. The first two sources of funds are at the beginning of the budget, and the third is the source of the new capital increase during the year. In 2015, the deficit rate of 3.5% was far higher than the budget target set by 2.3% at the beginning of the year. In this context, will the deficit rate increase this year? The industry believes that the day before the central economic work conference has been given a clear answer to the stage, increase the deficit rate. To improve the range, Liang Hong, chief macroeconomic analyst at CICC, said that fiscal policy will continue to expand in 2016. The general public budget deficit is expected to reach 2 trillion and 200 billion, and the general public budget deficit rate will reach 3%. Considering the government continues to revitalize the stock of funds, the deficit rate calculated in the year revenue and expenditure may be further expanded than 3.5% in 2015. Xu Gao believes that the current financial stock size of about 3 trillion yuan, revitalize the financial stock funds may become an important source of fiscal revenue in the future. With the elimination of budget constraints at the end of the year, under the weak economic environment, fiscal expenditure will return to high growth at the beginning of the year, and the positive fiscal policy will continue. Liu Yuanchun, Dean of Renmin University of China and the National Development Strategy Research Institute said that 2016 is the first year of Chinese macro economy continues to dip, is one of the most difficult years recently. Before the end of the world economy, there is still downside in China’s economy. All kinds of macroeconomic indicators will be further down, and the micro operation mechanism will be further mutated. We should adhere to the "fiscal Waqu, currency drain" principle, directional suggestions of strengthening the positive fiscal policy easing, fiscal deficit rate can reach about 3%, the total reached 2 trillion yuan, at the same time, will gradually change the structural tax cuts tax cuts for the total, to reform the existing financial payment mode. Expanding the scale of tax cuts, Liang Hong believes that 2016 tax cuts will play a greater role. "Camp changed to increase" will be covered to the theory

2016年积极财政料持续加力 预计赤字率将达3%   提赤减税 积极财政料持续加力   □本报记者 倪铭娅   2015年财政收支数据日前出炉,业内人士分析,在经济疲弱环境下,2016年初财政支出将重回高增速,积极财政政策将持续,预计2016年财政赤字率将达3%。   提高赤字率   根据财政部近日公布的数据计算,2015年实际收支口径财政赤字为2.36万亿元,约占同期GDP的3.5%,赤字规模较年初1.6万亿元的预算赤字高出约7600亿元。   光大证券首席经济学家徐高分析,实际收支口径赤字与预算收支口径赤字差距主要来自三方面:一是预算稳定调节基金中有1124亿元结转用于2015年开支;二是地方政府债从2015年转为余额管理,2014年地方政府债务还本部分为993亿元,2015年在1000亿元左右,意味着发新债还老债可以获得2000亿元左右的支出资金;三是财政存量资金盘活,估计2015年财政存量盘活资金在4000亿元以上。前两项资金来源均在年初预算中,第三项则为年内新增资金来源。   2015年3.5%的财政赤字率远高于年初设定的2.3%的预算目标。在此背景下,今年赤字率目标是否会提高?业内人士认为,日前召开的中央经济工作会议已给出明确答案,要阶段性提高财政赤字率。   对于提高幅度,中金公司首席宏观分析师梁红表示,2016年财政政策将继续维持扩张态势。预计一般公共预算财政赤字达到2.2万亿,一般公共预算赤字率达到3%。考虑政府继续盘活存量资金,以当年收支计算的赤字率可能比2015年的3.5%进一步扩大。   徐高认为,目前财政存量资金规模在3万亿元左右,盘活财政存量资金可能成为未来重要财政收入来源。随着年末预算约束的消除,经济疲弱环境下,年初财政支出将重回高增速,积极财政政策将持续。   中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院院长刘元春表示,2016年是中国宏观经济持续探底的第一年,也是近期最艰难的一年。在世界经济见底之前,中国经济还存在下行空间。各类宏观经济指标将进一步回落,微观运行机制将出现进一步变异。应坚持“财政挖渠,货币放水”的原则,建议强化积极财政政策的定向宽松,财政赤字率可以达到3%左右,总量达到2万亿元左右,同时,逐步将结构性减税转变为总量性减税,改革现有财政支付模式。   扩大减税规模   梁红认为,2016年减税将发挥更大作用。“营改增”将覆盖到所有行业,增值税税率有可能下调。由于经济增长和通胀仍然偏弱,税收增速仍将保持较低增长。土地出让收入在2015年经历大幅下跌后,预计2016年跌幅缩小,政府收入总量增速可能回升。   梁红预计,减税主要通过降低增值税实现。在具体减税安排上,一是通过金融、房地产、建筑以及生活服务业的营改增,预计减税2000亿元左右;二是降低制造业增值税等,预计减税3000亿元左右,据此测算,制造业增值税率可以从目前的17%大致降低到15%左右,增值税仍然偏高。预计企业所得税不会进行调整,但个税起征点偏低,有上调的需要,企业缴纳的社保等也有下调的必要。   梁红预计,今年减税可以提升经济增长0.4个百分点。“如果增加的财政赤字主要用于支出而不是减税,对于经济增长的拉动作用更大。”   加快发行地方债   加快地方债务置换,增加地方可用资金也是今年积极财政政策的一大重点。   分析人士预计,2016年地方债置换与新增规模将达到6万亿左右。新增债券将增加地方可用资金,存量置换债则帮助减轻地方债务成本支出,利于稳增长。   中金公司固定收益研究组认为,存量债务在未来2至3年完成置换,意味着未来将提前置换未到期债务。预计2016年地方政府债券置换与新增规模总计约6万亿,春节前会有少量地方债发行,但集中供给或需待春节后甚至两会后。2016年地方债发行将更加均匀,且债务余额管理制度下,地方政府发债的自主性将增加。   中债估值中心预估,2016年地方债发行会在2015年的基础上增加50%至60%。业内人士称,在中央严控地方债务风险背景下,地方债再度扩容,存量置换债券是重点。新增债券额度仍会谨慎控制,地方政府资金来源除了借力地方债,还得综合运用其他投融资手段,如通过PPP模式撬动社会资本。   在地方债发行力度加大的同时,城投债发行也再加速。交通运输、建筑工程等是城投债主要投资行业。   徐高表示,随着地方政府债务置换规模的加大和城投债的加速发行,基建投资资金面将明显改善。2016年地方债发行规模将进一步扩大,全年地方债发行额可能在5-6万亿元。同时,城投债发行持续加快,预计2016年城投债发行量将达1.8万亿元,将持续改善地方政府资金来源。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: