44Ren Zeping round of house prices rose near the end of the future metropolis satellite city elasticit|Ren Zeping round of house prices rose near the end of the future metropolis satellite city elasticit2

Ren Zeping: the current round of real estate prices rose near the end of the metropolitan satellite city of the largest elastic Sina Financial News August 29th, hosted by the current investment in the new three board mergers and acquisitions financing high-end salon held in Beijing. Founder Securities chief economist Dr. Ren Zeping published on the theme "Outlook" China economy and capital market keynote speech, Ren Zeping pointed out that this round of housing prices have been close, but the peak period and monetary policy tightening. Some commodities this year, there is something interesting, the main beneficiaries of the contraction of the supply side. The second half of the year there will be a hike in interest rates, the overall impact on the global monetary system short-term. Founder Securities chief economist Ren Zeping said that the current China has experienced third economic downturn, and now is concerned about the ability to start the reform of the third, which is a very critical battle of the World War II, said that the current economic downturn, China’s economy is the most important one. The traditional China reform bonus has disappeared, 1962-1976 is China birth peak, then at the end of 70s, family planning, population Chinese cliff drop. 1962-1976 was born in the crowd is the mainstream of China’s labor market, they determine the main characteristics of China’s economic growth and economic structure, in the past, China’s high growth is mainly the results of these people. Six years later, the group began to withdraw from the labor market, which is the key to China’s labor market in the past six years, the number of advantages to the advantages of human capital in the past six years. China birth rate low in 1994, the birth period leading to the real estate market cycle of twenty years, 1994 saw the birth of the low, in 20 years (2014) to see the real estate investment market highs. Stimulate real estate to stimulate the economy back to the era of high growth has ended, in 2014, China’s net population to buy a house, China’s urbanization rate has reached 56.1, the future of the entire urbanization rate is slowing down. Real estate investment high growth era is over. Ren Zeping pointed out that the current economic growth in the shift period, the future development of 5% new platform to build through reform, than in the past by the stimulus barely maintained on the platform of the 8%. The reform of new channels, the risk-free interest rate down, industrial upgrading, improving the lives of the residents. The future of the real estate market to go? Ren Zeping pointed out that the real estate cycle for a long time to see the population, short-term financial, short-term policy stimulus fluctuations in the real estate market fluctuations, will advance or postpone the purchase of demand. Long term population, the outflow of population determines the fundamentals of the real estate market. Where the real estate market will rise? Where do not go up? It turns out to be another judgment: where is the future of China’s population flowing? The international experience, through the research of data such as the United States and Japan more than a dozen economies urbanization after the real estate era showed that the process of urbanization, the population continued to migrate to the metropolitan area, metropolitan area population accounted for continuous improvement. If this is the law of the economy, China’s population will continue to move to the four economic circle, if the currency continues to exceed the real estate prices continue to rise in the four major economic circles is a fundamental support. This is mentioned last year’s forecast: first tier cities doubled the price of three or four cities rise